Breeders' Cup ultimate goal for Mine That Bird

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/21/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Now that Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird in his barn, the veteran horseman needs to map out a way to get the gelding to the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic.

Owners Leonard Blach and Mark Allen decided this week to transfer the four- year-old from Chip Woolley to Lukas. Mine That Bird was vanned from New Mexico to Churchill Downs and arrived early Thursday evening.

"Chip is a close friend of mine, and he done us a heck of a job last year," Allen said. "But I have a stable of horses back there that I really need looked after, and Mr. Lukas and some other trainers threw their hat in the ring. When a legend throws his hat in the ring, it's hard to go against him."

Mine That Bird, winner of nearly $2.2 million, has not won since his 50-1 upset in last year's Run for the Roses. He was second in the Preakness and third in the Belmont Stakes.

He was third in the West Virginia Derby last year and then underwent throat surgery for an entrapped epiglottis. He returned to finish sixth in the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita and closed 2009 with a ninth-place result behind Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita.

"He's such a gutty little competitor," said Lukas. "Looking at him here taking his bath, I think he looks better than I've ever seen him. The time off has really served him well. He looks better to me right now, and talking to the people who've been around him, I think he's doing better right now than he has. So, I've got a little bit of an edge there. I'm getting a nice horse with some good condition. I'm very pleased with what I see. For a horse that just got off a 12-hour van ride, that rascal looks pretty damned good."

Mine That Bird's route to the Breeders' Cup has not been mapped out, but it's likely he will race exclusively on real dirt tracks. This year's Breeders' Cup will held at Churchill Downs which has a natural dirt surface.

"That's our goal - right there," Allen said. "We're going to keep him here and not ship him around like we did last year. That took a lot out of him, and a lot of that was my fault. We're going let Mr. Lukas do his magic on him, but that's our goal: the Breeders' Cup."

While based at Churchill Downs, Mine That Bird will still be shipped to other tracks for major stakes races.

"I haven't talked with Mark or Dr. Blach about probably which races we'd want to target," Lukas said. "But I'm sure the Whitney's going to jump right out there, and maybe the Suburban at Belmont could be another possibility. Then they've got the Salvatore Mile over at Monmouth Park, which is another option. So there are plenty of options. The ultimate goal, of course, would be the Breeders' Cup. Whatever we do, we'll work backwards from the Breeders' Cup to make sure we look good here."

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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