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02/10/2009 - Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the second time in less than three weeks, the Virginia Cavaliers and the Florida State Seminoles will meet in an ACC tilt, this time in Tallahassee.
On January 24th, Florida State beat Virginia in Charlottesville by a 73-62 final, cutting the Cavaliers' lead to 17-16 in the all-time series.
Virginia limps into this evening's tilt with a seven-game losing streak that has dropped the club to 7-12 overall and 1-7 in conference. The Cavs have lost by double digits in five of the seven setbacks, including a 76-61 loss at North Carolina on Saturday. Virginia is 1-6 in true road games, not exactly a reason for optimism tonight.
As for Florida State, it has won its last two outings, including an impressive 65-61 road win over an extremely talented Clemson squad on Saturday. At 18-5 overall and 5-3 in conference action, the Seminoles, who are ranked 25th in the country this week, are in outstanding position to claim an NCAA Tournament bid, although plenty of regular season challenges await in the loaded ACC.
There are a few obvious reasons that Virginia lost to North Carolina on Saturday. The Cavaliers connected on only 36.5 percent of their field goal attempts in the contest, and they were outrebounded by a 46-34 final. An 11-5 deficit in points from the foul line also helped the cause. Jeff Jones scored 19 points for Virginia in the setback, and Sylven Landesberg pitched in 16 points. Sammy Zeglinski rounded out a trio of double-digit scorers with 11 points off the bench. Through 19 outings, the Cavaliers are posting 72.3 ppg, slightly less than the 73.7 ppg that the team is surrendering. Landesberg is just a freshman, but he is scoring 17.9 ppg. Mike Scott adds 10.5 ppg and 7.6 rpg, while Zeglinski is netting 9.5 ppg.
Toney Douglas was outstanding in the thrilling triumph over Clemson last time out, as the standout guard led Florida State with 23 points. Solomon Alabi came through with 17 points and nine rebounds for the Seminoles, who earned a 36-28 rebounding advantage in the clash while also forcing 18 turnovers. FSU actually trailed by eight points at intermission after shooting 30 percent from the floor in the first half, but 51.7 percent field goal efficiency over the final 20 minutes enabled the Seminoles to claim the come-from-behind win. Douglas is racking up 20.3 ppg this season, and no other player on the roster is scoring more than 8.4 ppg. With that in mind, it is fair to say that no other player in the ACC means more to his team than Douglas.
<< Top-25 foes meet in Big East clash
Villanova, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 13th-ranked Villanova Wildcats will try
to continue their run tonight, as they host the 10th-ranked Marquette Golden
Eagles in a Big East battle at the Pavilion.
The Wildcats have clawed their way back fr
<< Tigers take on Eagles in Chestnut Hill
Chestnut Hill, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two ACC squads trying to get back in the
win column hook up at the Conte Forum tonight, as the Boston College Eagles
entertain the 12th-ranked Clemson Tigers in Chestnut Hill.
The Eagles were in play just
<< Stepanek avoids upset; moves into second round in San Jose
San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fourth-seeded Czech Radek Stepanek avoided a
huge upset Monday, but rallied to beat German qualifier Dominik Meffert, 5-7,
6-3, 6-1 in the first round at the $600,000 SAP Open, the first American stop
on the
<< Boston University wins Beanpot
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Bonino, David Warsofsky and Colin Wilson
scored short-handed and Boston University won the 57th annual Beanpot
tournament Monday night with a 5-2 triumph over Northeastern.
Colby Cohen and Jas
Nuggets resume road trip in South Beach vs. Heat >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Northwest Division-leading Denver Nuggets hit a bump on
their eight-game road trip and will try to steer back on the right path
Tuesday evening against the Miami Heat at AmericanAirlines Arena.
Denver had a four-game w
Hawks, Wizards square off in Atlanta >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Hawks haven't been playing so hot lately and
will try to close out a quick two-game homestand on a winning note Tuesday
night versus the lowly Washington Wizards at Philips Arena.
Since winning three straight g
Bulls welcome Pistons to Windy City >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls will play their first home game in nearly
three weeks when the rival Detroit Pistons enter the United Center tonight for
a Central Division showdown.
Chicago returns to the Windy City after a moderate
Raptors, Wolves square off at Target Center >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Raptors haven't won much at all as of late, but
they've posted plenty of victories over the Minnesota Timberwolves over the
past few years.
The Raptors will shoot for their ninth straight triumph over the T
Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"
A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.
In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.
"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."
Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.
But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"
Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.
This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.
Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.
In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.
No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.
And that's all any bettor can ask for.
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com
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