Pettitte has strong outing as Yanks top Royals

Baseball Betting Lines

04/10/2009 - Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andy Pettitte scattered three hits and one run through seven innings, as the New York Yankees topped Kansas City, 4-1, in the opener of a three-game set.

Pettitte (1-0) held his foes in check with six strikeouts and one walk, en route to his 216th career victory.

Jorge Posada knocked in a pair of runs for the Yankees, who evened their record after losing two-of-three at Baltimore to start the season. Nick Swisher and Derek Jeter also added RBI.

Mike Jacobs knocked in the lone run for the Royals, who opened their season by winning two-of-three in Chicago against the White Sox.

Sidney Ponson (0-1), who was called up from Triple-A to start the game and fill the roster spot vacated by the injured Jose Guillen, was charged with six hits and four runs over six innings, fanning five with three walks.

The Yanks got to Ponson early, putting up two runs in the first on a sizzling two-RBI base hit from Posada. The Royals countered in the home second, on a two-out walk to Billy Butler followed by a double from Jacobs.

In the fourth, New York picked up two more runs courtesy of a Swisher double to plate Robinson Cano and a fielder's choice grounder by Jeter to plate Swisher.

Kansas City's best chance to cut into its deficit came in the fifth, as Butler led off with a double. However, the next three batters were retired in succession without advancing the runner.

Pettitte closed out his start by retiring nine of the final 10 batters he faced from the fifth through the seventh.

Brian Bruney fanned a pair while blanking the Royals in the eighth, then Mariano Rivera closed out the game with a scoreless ninth to earn his first save of the season.

Game Notes

Cano collected two hits for the Yankees, the only player on either side to have a multi-hit game...Right-fielder Guillen was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a grade 2 tear of a right groin muscle suffered Thursday in Chicago...Royals relievers Kyle Farnsworth and Jamey Wright combined to allow one hit with six strikeouts over three scoreless frames...Both clubs won five games apiece in the 2008 season series.

Wwwjackpotpalace Baseball Betting News

<< Driver charged with murder in Adenhart's death
Fullerton, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrew Thomas Gallo is facing three felony murder counts in the drunken driving accident that killed Angels rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart, The Orange County District Attorney announced the 22-yea

<< Norman misses cut after a 77
Augusta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The crowd surrounding Augusta National's familiar 18th green applauded Greg Norman. He applauded them right back. If the tournament hasn't always been kind to The Shark, at least the gallery has. No

<< Serena Williams withdraws from Family Circle Cup
Charleston, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Serena Williams has pulled out of the Family Circle Cup due to a left leg injury. The top-ranked player in the world hurt her leg at the Sony Ericsson Open, which she lost in the final to Victoria

<< Hall out as Cincy women's coach
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - J. Kelley Hall, who had served as the head coach of Cincinnati's women's basketball team for the last two seasons, will not return next year, the school revealed on Friday. Hall put together a 26-33 m

<< Perry joins Campbell in Masters lead
Augusta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kenny Perry fired a five-under 67 on Friday to join overnight-leader Chad Campbell, who had a 70, atop the leaderboard after the second round of the Masters. Perry and Campbell finished 36 holes at nine-under 1

Colorado rocks Hamels, Phils in home opener >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Garrett Atkins' first hit of the season -- a two-run homer -- highlighted a five-run third inning, as the Colorado Rockies defeated the Philadelphia Phillies, 10-3, in the home opener at Coors Field. Ryan

Pirates/Reds postponed >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Friday's game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park was postponed because of rain. A makeup date has not been announced. Pittsburgh's Jeff Karstens and Cincinnati

Weeks leads Brewers' ninth-inning comeback over Cubs >>
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rickie Weeks doubled home the tying run in the ninth, took third on a ball in the dirt and scored the winning run on an infield hit with a head-first slide just ahead of the tag to give Milwaukee a thrilling 4-3

Gilroy wins 2009 Hobey Baker Award >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Hobey Baker Memorial Award Executive Committee announced Friday that Boston University senior defenseman Matt Gilroy was named the 29th winner of college hockey's most prestigious individ

Mickelson bounces back with a 68 >>
Augusta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After struggling to a one-over 73 on Thursday, Phil Mickelson bounced back with a four-under 68 Friday to move into share of 11th at three-under-par 141 after two rounds of the Masters. Mickelson was well o

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.