Will the Edwards-Keselowski feud boil over to ORP?

Autoracing Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - Clermont, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday, July 24. Race: Kroger 200. Site: O'Reilly Raceway Park at Indianapolis. Track: 0.686-mile oval. Start time: 8:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 137.2. 2009 winner: Carl Edwards. Television: ESPN. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

While the Sprint Cup Series competes at the "big" track in Indianapolis, the Nationwide Series will race down the road at O'Reilly Raceway Park. Nationwide teams have been running at the 0.686-mile track each year since the inception of the series in 1982.

Obviously, there has been a lot of hype surrounding the latest on-track altercation between Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski. While battling for the lead during the last lap in last Saturday's Nationwide race at Gateway International Raceway, Edwards nudged Keselowski and spun him into the frontstretch wall as they were heading out of the final turn.

Edwards won at Gateway for the third time, while Keselowski slid across the finish line in 14th-place before Shelby Howard plowed into him, causing another spin around. Keselowski saw his points lead trimmed to 168 over Edwards.

"I'm sure he'll say how sorry he is, or how cool he thinks he is, or how great of a guy he is in his own mind, but that's not reality," Keselowski said after the Gateway race.

Gateway was the latest in an on-going feud between Edwards and Keselowski. Will the Edwards-Keselowski rivalry continue at ORP? It certainly will make for an interesting Saturday night here.

"After looking at it, we can each step in the other's shoes and see it from another perspective," Edwards said. "From my side, we'll just go keep racing."

Edwards is the defending race winner at ORP. In last year's event, he had to charge from the rear of the field before passing Kyle Busch for the lead in the closing laps to win at ORP for the first time. Edwards had to start from the back since Colin Braun qualified his car. He was held up in the rain- delayed Sprint Cup qualifying session and then final practice at nearby Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Morgan Shepherd leads all drivers with three victories at ORP. Shepherd won here in 1982, '84 and '88. Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jason Keller and Randy LaJoie are the other drivers with repeat wins at this track.

Forty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Kroger 200.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.